Showing 1 - 10 of 209
In this paper, we produce short term forecasts for the inflation in Turkey, using a large number of econometric models. In particular, we employ univariate models, decomposition based approaches (both in frequency and time domain), a Phillips curve motivated time varying parameter model, a suite...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011048867
Governments and central banks need to have an accurate and timely assessment of indicators for the current month, as this is essential for providing a reliable and early analysis of the current economic situation. The index of industrial production (IIP) is probably the most important and widely...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010588231
A spatial error model is classified as a geostatistical model or a weight matrix model on the basis of the method of specification of spatial autocorrelation in the disturbance. Specification errors cannot be assumed to be absent, and the robustness of alternative specifications is useful for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010608299
We explore bifurcation phenomena in the open-economy New Keynesian CGG Model based on Clarida et al. (2001, 2002). We find that the open economy framework can bring about more complex dynamics, along with a wider variety of qualitative behaviors and policy responses. Introducing parameters...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010636282
In this paper we develop an open economy model explaining the joint determination of output, inflation, interest rates, unemployment and the exchange rate in a multi-country framework. Our model—the Halle Economic Projection Model (HEPM)—is closely related to studies published by Carabenciov...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011048681
We propose to produce accurate point and interval forecasts of exchange rates by combining a number of well known fundamental based panel models. Combination of each model utilizes a set of weights computed using a linear mixture of experts's framework, where weights are determined by log scores...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010743991
The paper examines Granger-causality between the producers' and the consumers' price using Australian data within the frequency domain framework. For long run relation, the Johansen and Juselius (1990) maximum likelihood approach to cointegration was utilized. The test is also supplemented by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010597525
According to the growing “Google econometrics” literature, Google queries may help predict economic activity. The aim of our paper is to test whether these data can enhance predictions of youth unemployment in France.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011048762
The 2007–2008 US subprime mortgage crisis evolved into a financial crisis that negatively affected many economies in the world and was afterwards widely referred to as the global financial crisis. Since the beginning of this financial crisis of 2008–2009, South Africa experienced a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010738002
This study develops comprehensive full-sector macro-econometric models for the Nigerian economy with the aim of explaining and providing a long-term solution for the persistent growth–poverty divergence experienced by the country. The models are applied to test the hypothesis of existing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010577083