Rational expectations has been the dominant way to model expectations, but the literature has quickly moved to a more realistic assumption of boundedly rational learning where agents are assumed to use only a limited set of information to form their expectations. A standard assumption is that...

A macro econometric model of the Russian economy is tailored to analyze the effects of changes in the oil price and alternative fiscal policies. Model simulations indicate that the Russian economy is vulnerable to large fluctuations in the oil price, but we also find evidence of significant...

Macroeconometric models are often criticised for being too complex and difficult to read in theoretical terms. To overcome these difficulties, Hickman suggested the calculation of a model's implicit aggregate demand/supply (AD/AS) structure. The method helps to understand models and their main...

In this paper we estimate the benefit for the ageing North countries of diversifying some of their trade away from other North countries in favour of South countries. To this end we use a six-region overlapping generations model that takes into account the demographic trends of the 21st century...

This paper provides a summary of the OECD's new global macroeconometric model, including an overview of model structure and a selection of simulations illustrating its main properties. Compared with its predecessors, the new model is more compact and regionally aggregated, but gives more weight...

In this paper a fiscal consolidation program for India has been presented based on a policy simulation model that enables us to examine the macroeconomic implications of alternative fiscal strategies, given certain assumptions about other macro policy choices and relevant exogenous factors. The...

The aim of this article is to analyze how financial heterogeneity can accentuate the cyclical divergences inside a monetary union that faces technological, monetary, budgetary and financial shocks. To this purpose, this study relies on a two-country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model,...

Macroeconomic policy decisions in real-time are based on the assessment of current and future economic conditions. Crucially, these assessments are made difficult by the presence of incomplete and noisy data. The problem is more acute for emerging market economies, where most economic data are...

Between 1990 and 2010, the Dutch government pursued two successful fiscal adjustments: first, in 1995–2002, through a pure expenditure-based strategy and second, in 2004–2007, through a mixed strategy based on social transfer cuts and tax increases. In order to assess welfare and, in...

This paper creates a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model which looks at the macroeconomic factors that impact the export of both finished and unfinished Pakistani textiles between 1980 and 2011. The analysis is unique in two ways: first, it separates unfinished (low value-added)...