Constructing forecasts of the future path for economic series such as real gross domestic product growth, inflation, and unemployment forms a large part of applied economic analysis for business and government. Model-based forecasts are easier to replicate and validate by independent researchers...

The data on economic variables are usually estimates, and these estimates may be revised many times after their initial publication. Most historical forecast evaluation exercises use the "latest available" or most recently revised vintage of historical data when constructing the forecasts-that...

Forecasts, whether explicit or implicit, are at the heart of policy making. In considering forecasting for monetary policy, this article contrasts the forecasting processes at three central banks-the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Bank of England, and the U.S. Federal Reserve. ; In the United...

The information technology (IT) boom dramatically boosted the rapid growth of the U.S. economy during the 1990s, contributing 1.4 percentage points of the 4.6 percent national average real gross domestic product growth from 1996 to 2000. As the IT boom went bust in 2001, however, the IT...

Although current inflation rates are relatively benign, the costs of unexpected inflation, even at low rates, remain substantial for individual firms and consumers. Many types of planning decisions, such as businesses' and governments' plans for expected expenses and revenues, hinge on inflation...

Seventy years after the Great Depression, economists still debate the causes of this economic catastrophe. Two leading explanations are distinguished by whether or not the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies are perceived as being chiefly responsible for propagating and magnifying the initial...