An analysis of the current relationship between stock prices, dividends, earnings, and returns, aimed at examining the causes of the recent stock market surge. It reveals that the markets level cannot be explained by any single fundamental element of standard stock valuation models, but rather...

An examination of the various factors that have determined the level and growth of the federal debt over the past 40 years, with some perspective on future levels of federal debt.

A history and analysis of the debate about whether monetary policy should be conducted by rules known in advance to all or by policymaker discretion.

An examination of recent changes in the statistical properties of alternative measures of core inflation, identifying statistically significant change points in the fixed mean and finding that for all measures considered, changes in the inflation rate trend have been infrequent and, for the most...

A presentation of some tentative evidence that MZM, an alternative money measure comprising all instruments payable at par on demand, has exhibited a fairly stable relationship with nominal GDP and with its own opportunity cost in recent years, suggesting a potential role for policy.

An examination of the short- and long-term implications of an inflation policy on real output, using a method that allows structural interpretation of a simple VAR applied to a macroeconomic system that includes real output and inflation.

A review of the literature concerning how individuals learn to form rational expectations and a discussion of the meaning of rationality in a macroeconomy characterized by highly decentralized markets.

An examination of recent empirical research on money demand, which states that the interest elasticity of money demand is greater than most economists previously thought. The author discusses the policy implications of this research for both the M1 and M2 measures.

An analysis of the recent weakness in M2 growth that attempts to measure the opportunity cost of the aggregate more accurately and that explores the potential effects of the thrift industry restructuring on the adjustment of money demand to its long-run equilibrium level.

An analysis of how federal funds futures markets are efficient processors of information concerning the future path of the fed funds rate and a discussion of some related implications for central-bank policymaking.