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Turn, turn, turn: Predicting turning points in economic activity

Negro, Marco Del - In: Economic Review (2001) Q2, pp. 1-12

forecasting? ; The author first discusses the definition of turning points and describes different approaches to turning point … forecasting, along with their relative advantages and disadvantages. Next, the article assesses the performance of the Atlanta Fed … Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) model in terms of forecasting turning points relative to a well-known alternative, the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005361145

Tax structure, optimal fiscal policy, and the business cycle

Guo, Jang-Ting; Lansing, Kevin J. - In: Economic Review (1994) Q IV, pp. 2-14

The development of a real business cycle model in which government fiscal variables such as tax rates and public expenditures are endogenous. The authors characterize the "optimal" behavior of these policy variables over the business cycle and relate this behavior to movements in private-sector...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005491055

Financial efficiency and aggregate fluctuations: an exploration

Haubrich, Joseph G. - In: Economic Review (1991) Q IV, pp. 25-36

An exploration of the link between changes in the efficiency of the financial system and business cycle fluctuations.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005491058

New Classical and New Keynesian models of business cycles

Kades, Eric - In: Economic Review (1985) Q IV, pp. 20-35

A presentation of simple, but complete, New Classical and New Keynesian models of the economy and business cycles that illustrate the central force behind fluctuations in each. Theoretical and statistical arguments for and against each model are discussed.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005491060

On business cycles and countercyclical policies

Espinosa-Vega, Marco A.; Guo, Jang-Ting - In: Economic Review (2001) Q4, pp. 1-11

Since the third quarter of 2000, the U.S. economy began to experience a slowdown in its rate of growth. This slowdown serves as a reminder that the business cycle is still alive and raises the following questions: What do we know about the driving forces behind the business cycle? What should...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005491161

How resilient is the modern economy to energy price shocks?

Dhawan, Rajeev; Jeske, Karsten - In: Economic Review (2006) Q 3, pp. 21-32

While many empirical economists claim that energy price shocks drive U.S. business cycles, economists using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models believe that business cycles are caused mainly by productivity shocks. ; The authors reconcile the two views by constructing a DSGE...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498202

Real business cycles

Rush, Mark - In: Economic Review (1987) Feb, pp. 20-32

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005373350

Recent evidence on the muted inventory cycle

Filardo, Andrew J. - In: Economic Review (1995) Q II, pp. 27-43

Inventories play an important role in business cycles. Inventory build-ups add momentum to the economy during expansions, while inventory liquidations sap economic strength during recessions. In addition, because inventory fluctuations are notoriously difficult to predict, they present...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005373378

Cyclical implications of the declining manufacturing employment share

Filardo, Andrew J. - In: Economic Review (1997) Q II, pp. 63-87

Over the last 35 years, the U.S. economy has created service sector jobs at a faster pace than manufacturing sector jobs. Not only has this trend led to a significant shift in the composition of the labor force from manufacturing to services, but it has also fundamentally changed the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005373458

Is a recession inevitable this year?

Higgins, Bryon - In: Economic Review (1988) Jan, pp. 3-16

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005373462

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