How should one conclude whether the data have come in stronger, weaker, or as expected?>

It's hard to make a firm prediction as to when the Fed will raise interest rates.

Market participants rebalance their portfolios in advance of a recession.

The greater a component’s SNR, the more useful the component should be in forecasting headline CPI.

One common threshold is that labor market conditions are improving when weekly unemployment claims fall below 400,000.

Housing tends to contribute significantly to an economic recovery.

FOMC members have incentives to construct their forecasts strategically.