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The continued use of a currency depends on the stability of its value and the existence of alternatives for achieving final settlement.
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Longer-term yields declined by relatively large amounts on days when the FOMC made specific QE announcements. However, the objective of QE has been to reduce long-term yields beyond the levels they would have reached without QE.
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The United States can simply recycle the financial capital inflows from China and re-export them back to China in the form of FDI. In so doing, the United States gains a substantially larger rate of return from FDI than China does from owning U.S. government bonds.
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Weak lending may still be the culprit behind low inflation, but monetary aggregates may no longer closely track credit conditions.
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Okun’s law can be a useful guide for monetary policy, but only if the natural rate of unemployment is properly measured.>
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Significant store-of-value demand for housing suggests a bubble that could burst, especially when both the household income growth rate and the savings rate start to decline and capital controls in China start to relax.
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We merely want to see whether, historically, fast growth of the monetary base has been associated with faster growth of real output.
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Economic theory predicts that fast growth can lead to high saving rates if people lack financial institutions that allow them to borrow.
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Inflation is seldom caused by lump-sum transfers but is often caused by higher government spending programs.
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The important point is that both the Chinese trade surplus with the United States and the amassed foreign reserves result from the savings decisions of Chinese consumers.
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