Traditional Phillips curves relating inflation to a measure of the level of activity, and augmented to include past inflation (assumed to proxy expected inflation), have been thought to be highly unstable over time. In this paper we try to investigate, using recent econometric developments,...

In this paper we examine whether the conventional result of a greater degree of integration leading to lower price-cost margins (i.e., the pro-competitive effect), would hold when two countries integrate by forming a common market. We propose a general framework of reference, in order to assess...

In this paper we provide an empirical test of the Fisher effect using cointegration techniques, where the existence of instabilities in the cointegrating or long-run relationships is explicitly tested. The analysis was applied to the UK, a country that has been subject to potentially stronger...

In this paper we use recent developments on threshold autoregressive (TAR) models that allow us to derive endogenously threshold effects in the evolution of the Spanish budget deficit. Specifically, a mean-reverting dynamic behaviour of the budget deficit should be expected once such threshold...

In this paper we re-examine the long-run sustainability of budget deficits, when fiscal policy is conducted as a nonlinear process. Our empirical methodology makes use of recent developments on threshold cointegration that consider the possibility of a nonlinear relationship between government...

We provide some new evidence on the credibility of the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the European Monetary System. To that end, we use of several credibility indicators, analysing the complete EMS history. We also compare the prediction qualities of the different indicators, and apply them to the...

In this paper, we propose a new methodology for the assessment of EU’s regional policies, making use of the HERMIN macroeconometric model. A major feature of our approach is that allows us to compare the actual evolution of the economy under analysis, with and without European funds, so that...

This paper analyses the economic long-run effects of the EU funds received by the Andalusian region, with special emphasis in the Community Support Framework 1994-1999 (CSF 94-99). To that end, we estimate an aggregate private-sector production function where the stock of public capital appears...