We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic … quarterly projections. We investigate whether the properties of the forecasts depend on the level of inflation, by … distinguishing whether the inflation observed by the ECB at the time of forecasting is above or below the target. The forecasts are …

This paper revisits inflation forecasting using reduced form Phillips curve forecasts, i.e., inflation forecasts using … regression specifications selected from a set of potential predictors. The set of predictors includes lagged values of inflation … Phillips curve forecasts. We use this framework to describe PCE deflator and GDP deflator inflation rates for the United States …

Inflation forecasting plays a central role in monetary policy formulation. At the same time, recent international … empirical evidence suggests that with the decline in inflation of recent years, the joint dynamics of this variable and its … potential predictors has changed and inflation has become more unpredictable. Using a univariate model as a benchmark, we …

, thus allowing a comparison of the relevance of domestic versus external determinants of CPI inflation dynamics. For most … countries in our sample the expected relative change in the terms of trade emerges as a more relevant inflation driver than the …

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve, as a structural model of inflation dynamics, has mostly been used to explain past … inflation developments, but has hardly been used for forecasting purposes. We propose a method of forecasting inflation based on …-of-the-art time series models used in inflation forecasting we employ a Bayesian VAR, a traditional VAR and a simple autoregressive …

Since 2000 U.S. inflation has remained both below target and silent to domestic slack and monetary interventions. A … inflation. The trend analysis shows that, starting from the '90s, despite very well-anchored expectations, slow-moving imported … "cost-push" factors induced deflationary pressure keeping trend inflation below target. The cycle block provides evidence in …

The low rate of inflation observed in the U.S. over the past decade is hard to reconcile with traditional measures of … labor market slack. We develop a theory-based indicator of interfirm wage competition that can explain the missing inflation …, raising inflation by around 1 percentage point during most of 2021. …

Changing time series properties of US inflation and economic activity, measured as marginal costs, are modeled within a …. Forward and backward looking expectation components for inflation are incorporated and their relative importance is evaluated …. Survey data on expected inflation are introduced to strengthen the information in the likelihood. Use is made of simulation …