Fundamental sources of the Russian financial crisis in 1998 are discussed. Focus is made on the time horizon of judgements concerning sustainability of the economic policy. It is argued that the macroeconomic policy pursued by the monetary authorities was not robust in a medium run, but, in the...

The S-Curve hypothesis postulates that while the cross-correlation between the current exchange rate and future values of the trade balance could be positive, the same correlation between the current exchange rate and past values of the trade balance could be negative. In this paper we decompose...

Fundamental sources of the Russian financial crisis in 1998 are discussed. Focus is made on the time horizon of judgements concerning sustainability of the economic policy. It is argued that the macroeconomic policy pursued by the monetary authorities was not robust in a medium run, but, in the...

Four different schemes for classifying exchange rate regimes are compared for developing countries. Disagreements are substantial, and alternative schemes disagree as much with each other as with the official scheme. Only the official scheme shows a trend towards floating

There exits two groups of studies that have investigated the short-run and the long-run effects of currency depreciation on the trade balance. The first group has employed trade data at the aggregate level between one country and the rest of the world. The second group has used trade data at the...

The yenÂ's value on a real effective exchange rate basis has already fallen to its lowest level since the 1985 Plaza Accord. In particular, Japanese retail investors have recently tried to diversify their portfolio by purchasing higher-yielding assets denominated in a foreign currency through...

This paper compares the "level" regression of the future spot rate on the current forward rate, which yields a slope coefficient close to unity, to the forward premium puzzle, i.e., a regression of the change in the spot exchange rate on the forward premium, which paradoxically yields a slope...

Four different schemes for classifying exchange rate regimes are compared for developing countries. Disagreements are substantial, and alternative schemes disagree as much with each other as with the official scheme. Only the official scheme shows a trend towards floating

This note analyzes consumption risk sharing among the EU-15 countries. It is found that the reaction of consumption growth rates to idiosyncratic income growth is too sensitive to be consistent with perfect risk sharing. Some evidence is presented in favor the hypothesis that institutional and...

The paper investigates the validity of PPP by using 15 OECD countries data of monthly frequency from 1980:01 to 2005:12 and tests for the symmetry and proportionality hypotheses. The test for PPP is conducted in the framework of the General Relative PPP (RPPP) as proposed by Coakley et al....