In 2008, US corporate bond spreads almost reached Great Depression levels. The Fed was a lender of last resort in commercial paper, but not corporate bonds. The Fed’s FRB/US macroeconomic model is used to simulate the effects of the Fed successfully capping the BBB-10 year Treasury spread at...

This paper studies empirically the dynamic interactions between asset prices, monetary policy, and aggregate fluctuations in the U.S. during the Volcker–Greenspan period. Results from a simple structural vector autoregression indicate that monetary policy reacts directly to the term spread and...

Using a statistical methodology guided by a genetic algorithm, we select the best econometric model for explaining the severity of the 2008 crisis, with the main determinant being the percentage of bank claims on private sector over deposits in the year 2006.

This paper suggests that a model in which firms face credit constraints on hiring labor can explain both the behavior of the labor wedge and the “jobless recoveries” phenomenon of the last three recessions. Using the corporate credit spread as a measure of firms’ credit conditions, I show...

We use probit recession forecasting models to assess the ability of economic policy uncertainty indexes developed by Baker et al. (2013) to predict future US recessions. The model specifications include policy indexes on their own, and in combination with financial variables, such as interest...

This paper uses the multivariate unobserved components model with phase shifts to analyse the interaction of interest rates, output, asset prices and credit in the US. We find close linkages amongst cyclical fluctuations in the variables.

We explore shocks to expected future productivity in a model with limited enforcement of financial contracts. A microfounded collateral constraint implies that good news about future productivity yield an increase in stock prices, available credit and a general economic expansion.

We introduce heterogeneity in investors’ ability to borrow from collateral in a Kiyotaki–Moore style macro model, calibrated to the quintiles of the leverage-ratio distribution of US non-financial firms. Financial amplification intensifies, because of stronger asset price reactions of highly...

This paper characterizes a class of regularly varying production functions with an asymptotic elasticity of substitution equal to one. In particular, it is shown that these functions asymptotically approximate the Cobb–Douglas form. The results generalize and unify existing results in the...

In a Barro-type economy with exogenous consumption aspirations, raising income taxes favors growth even in the presence of lump-sum taxes. Such a policy is compatible with the behavior of private consumption, income taxes and growth rates observed in actual economies.