A restricted-perceptions equilibrium exists in which risk-averse agents believe stock prices follow a random walk with a conditional variance that is self-fulfilling. When agents estimate risk, bubbles and crashes arise. These effects are stronger when agents allow for ARCH in excess returns.

This paper shows that when Value-at-Risk constrained institutional investors care about their relative standings among the peer group, more risk averse investors would take more risk, which improves the risk sharing and lowers the volatility.

Two recent asset pricing models share a common core of the addition of profitability and investment as factors, but differ in implementation. We adapt these models for the UK and argue that the Fama–French five-factor profitability factor offers the most potential.

We provide evidence that institutional improvements lead to lower levels of financial dollarization through previously unidentified channels. These indirect channels operate in addition to the direct impact identified in the literature and further illustrate the importance of institutions for...

We study the leading properties of 30 US high yield spreads for economic growth between 1996 and 2012 and show that they disappeared in the second half of the 2000s. Our empirical findings demonstrate the unreliability of high yield spreads as leading indicators and cast doubts on the existence...

This paper studies empirically the dynamic interactions between asset prices, monetary policy, and aggregate fluctuations in the U.S. during the Volcker–Greenspan period. Results from a simple structural vector autoregression indicate that monetary policy reacts directly to the term spread and...

This paper introduces a new loss function and Usefulness measure for evaluating early warning systems (EWSs) that incorporate policymakers’ preferences between issuing false alarms and missing crises, and individual observations. The novelty derives from three enhancements: (i) accounting for...

In 2008, US corporate bond spreads almost reached Great Depression levels. The Fed was a lender of last resort in commercial paper, but not corporate bonds. The Fed’s FRB/US macroeconomic model is used to simulate the effects of the Fed successfully capping the BBB-10 year Treasury spread at...

We challenge the view that the negative correlation between the Federal Funds and the Euler equation interest rate is linked to monetary policy. Using Monte Carlo experiments, we show that the negative correlation can be explained by risk premium disturbances.

This paper compares macroprudential policy and monetary policy using a simple New Keynesian model with credit. Macroprudential policy is effective in stabilizing credit with limited impact on inflation. Monetary policy stabilizes inflation, but is ‘too blunt’ for credit stabilization.