This paper proposes a new dividend-based S&P 500 Index return predictor, the implied dividend yield term structure (IDYTS). We show that the IDYTS is a “cleaner” predictor than its conventional counterpart, the dividend price ratio (DP), in that the expected return is a linear combination...

We develop a generalized impulse response function for the fractionally integrated vector autoregressive (FIVAR) model using the Pesaran and Shin (1998) approach. Our method is different from the methodology shown in Chung (2001) since it does not require us to orthogonalize the error vector...

This paper investigates the Estimating Function method in the context of ACD modelling and appraises the properties of these estimates. A simulation study is conducted to demonstrate that these estimates are more efficient than the corresponding ML and QML estimates.

This paper proposes an extension to threshold-type switching models that lets the threshold variable be a linear combination of exogenous variables with unknown coefficients. An algorithm to estimate the model’s parameters by least squares is provided and the validity of the methodological...

With interest rates near the zero lower bound, I propose a simple framework to indicate the monetary policy stance as a “shadow short rate”. I apply a one-factor model to Japan, provide associated economic intuition, and discuss multiple-factor extensions.

This study examines the volatility spillovers between the foreign exchange rate markets of three of the USA’s major trading partners and the US stock market, utilizing the forecast-error variance decomposition framework of a VAR model proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009). The empirical...

This paper investigates the profitability of momentum-based trading strategies pursued during the most recent economic downturns in global equity markets. In contrast to previous studies, it reveals that such strategies generated statistically significant negative returns during the most recent...

We use extreme value theory to analyse the tails of a momentum strategy’s return distribution. The asymmetry between the fat left tail and thin right tail strongly reduces a momentum strategy’s prospective utility levels.

A restricted-perceptions equilibrium exists in which risk-averse agents believe stock prices follow a random walk with a conditional variance that is self-fulfilling. When agents estimate risk, bubbles and crashes arise. These effects are stronger when agents allow for ARCH in excess returns.

Art is often used as an investment vehicle. Given the importance of market efficiency in finance, we use a large auction-based index to test whether the art market is weakly efficient. Evidence reveals that returns on artworks exhibit high positive auto-correlation. We attribute this result to...