Utilizing comparable time-series forecasts as benchmarks, we document the “weak” and “stronger” rationality of professional forecasts of growth in business investment for 1982–2009. Consistent with these findings, the forecasts are directionally accurate and imply symmetric loss.

This study shows that the private sector accurately predicts short-term interest rate targets set by the Brazilian monetary authorities. With increased transparency under inflation targeting, such evidence suggests that the public perceives the central bank as credible.

This study examines Blue Chip forecasts of the 3-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR), federal funds rate (FFR), and LIBOR-FFR for 1988-2008. We show that the interest rate (spread) forecasts, while directionally accurate, imply asymmetric (symmetric) loss.