This paper considers forecasting regressions of "realized volatility" on a misalignment measure. Results show that this misalignment measure is useful to predict in and out-of-sample stock-market volatility at monthly horizons. The analysis also suggests a threshold effect.

This paper contains the first empirical application of the Dynamic Equicorrelation (DECO) model to a cross-market dataset composed of equities, bonds, foreign exchange rates and commodities during 1983–2013. The originality of our approach consists of examining the volatility equicorrelations,...