This note examines a common explanation why participants of panel surveys may report declining life satisfaction over time. In line with the argument of developing trust relationships between interviewers and interviewees, the analysis reveals positive effects in reported life satisfaction when...

Many promising efforts in the social sciences aim to measure future outcomes (such as wages or health outcomes) given some base level of human capital or ability. They typically fail to recognize the proxies for human capital are all measured with error, creating bias in regression analysis....

The Nelson–Olsen covariance estimator of the simultaneous least squares-probit model is adjusted to accommodate probability based stratified surveys. A simultaneous model of body mass and the propensity to exercise provides an empirical example using stratified survey data.

Existing hedonic methods cannot be easily adapted to estimate willingness to pay for product characteristics when willingness to pay depends on a very large basket of goods. We show how to marry these methods with revealed preference arguments to estimate bounds on willingness to pay using data...

This paper analyzes the effects of training quality on the likelihood of treatment completion by estimating dose–response functions via a generalized propensity score. Results show a statistically positive relationship between training quality and treatment completion for youth participants in...

Previous literature has shown that, in a New Keynesian model, an expectations based policy rule induces E-stability of the fundamental equilibrium, while a fundamentals based one does not. We derive an alternative rule, based only on fundamentals, which can also achieve stability of equilibrium...

We study the rationality of the inflation forecasts of the central banks of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. We reject rationality under a symmetric (Chile is an exception) but not under an asymmetric loss function. An overprediction implies a larger loss than an underprediction. We also...

We compare forecasts from different adaptive learning algorithms and calibrations applied to US real-time data on inflation and growth. We find that the Least Squares with constant gains adjusted to match (past) survey forecasts provides the best overall performance both in terms of forecasting...

Using a dynamic multivariate system, where variables are aligned in order to reflect data availability at the time when agents form their expectations, we show that survey expectations contain relevant information about business cycle developments in the euro area.

We estimate the relative contribution of recursive preferences versus adaptive learning in accounting for the tail thickness of price–dividends/rents ratios. We find that both of these sources of volatility account for volatility in liquid (stocks) but not illiquid (housing) assets.