We apply a recent quantile autoregression unit root test to US GDP. The test takes into account that the transmission of a shock might depend on the sign and the size of the shock. We find that positive and negative shocks including large recessionary shocks like the 2008/2009 crisis have...

This paper extends the Markov-switching vector autoregressive models to accommodate both the typical lack of synchronicity that characterizes the real-time daily flow of macroeconomic information and economic indicators sampled at different frequencies. The results of the empirical application...

Arguing that crises are similar if they are predictable from historical experience, we employ panel logit models to examine similarities in the run-ups to the current global financial crisis and historical banking crises. Asset bubbles are the most common precursors.

Rational expectations models with news shocks may generate moving average representation that are nonfundamental. The nonfundamentalness typically arises from the lag polynomial associated with news shocks. This paper provides an exact solution formula for this special type of polynomial and...

A Lagrangian multiplier test is proposed for testing market microstructure noise (MMN) in financial asset prices. The test is very simple and is asymptotically chi-squared with 1-degree of freedom. The test is applied to sampling interval determination for realized volatilities (RVs) which...

A novel procedure is applied to test for switches between hysteresis and the natural rate theory over more than a century of UK and USA unemployment data. For both the countries we see a period conforming to hysteresis starting in the early 1920s for the UK and 1930 for USA.

In this paper, we consider a model where producers set their prices based on their prediction of the aggregated price level and an exogenous variable, which can be a demand or a cost-push shock. To form their expectations, they use OLS-type econometric learning with bounded memory. We show that...

While theory of autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) models is well understood for strictly stationary processes, some recent interest has focused on the nonstationary case. In the classical model including a positive intercept parameter, the volatility process diverges to...

In this paper, we consider the multivariate ARMA–GARCH process governed by Markov switching coefficients. We show under proper assumptions that the process holds the L2-NED property and obeys the multivariate functional central limit theorem. The multivariate Markov switching constant...

We propose to apply the group fused Lasso to estimate time series models with endogenous regressors and an unknown number of breaks. It can correctly determine the number of breaks and estimate the break dates asymptotically. Simulations and applications are given.