We use individual-level data to show that divorce is pro-cyclical on average, a finding robust to the inclusion of a wide range of controls. Pro-cyclical divorce is concentrated among women who married young and/or do not have a college degree.

We show that when instruments are nearly exogenous, the two stage least squares t-statistic unpredictably over-rejects or under-rejects the null hypothesis that the endogenous regressor is insignificant and Anderson-Rubin test over-rejects the null. We prove that in the limit these tests are no...