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This paper quantifies the effects on welfare of misspecified monetary policy objectives in a stylized DSGE model. We show that using inappropriate objectives generates relatively large welfare costs. When expressed in terms of ‘consumption equivalent’ units, these costs correspond to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010707497
distribution function is the p-value and is available numerically by direct calculation or by Markov chain Monte Carlo or by other … Bayesian literature, with many variations and some preference for two versions labelled pppost and pcpred. The bootstrap method … develop: an ancillary based p-value designated panc; a special version of the Bayesian pcpred; and a bootstrap based p …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010905315
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010706951
In this paper we study the asymptotic behaviour of the posterior distribution in a mixture model when the number of components in the mixture is larger than the true number of components, a situation commonly referred to as overfitted mixture. We prove in particular that quite generally the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010707906
anti-Bayesian statement appeared on the book of probability theory by mathematician William Feller. It notes that they …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011162103
theoreticians that Bayesian methods were absurd—not merely misguided but obviously wrong in principle. We consider several examples …, beginning with Feller's classic text on probability theory and continuing with more recent cases such as the perceived Bayesian … about Bayesian statistics, without aiming at a complete historical coverage of the reasons for this dismissal. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011162134
We consider finite state space stationary hidden Markov models (HMMs) in the situation where the number of hidden … states is unknown. We provide a frequentist asymptotic evaluation of Bayesian analysis methods. Our main result gives …. Using conditions on the prior, we are then able to define a consistent Bayesian estimator of the number of hidden states. It …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011166349
We consider finite state space stationary hidden Markov models (HMMs) in the situation where the number of hidden … states is unknown. We provide a frequentist asymptotic evaluation of Bayesian analysis methods. Our main result gives …. Using conditions on the prior, we are then able to define a consistent Bayesian estimator of the number of hidden states. It …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011166477
appropriate, most generally via a standard Monte Carlo validation. …The choice of the summary statistics in Bayesian inference and in particular in ABC algorithms is paramount to produce …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011166507
The issue of using informative priors for estimation of mixtures at multiple time points is examined. Several different informative priors and an independent prior are compared using samples of actual and simulated aerosol particle size distribution (PSD) data. Measurements of aerosol PSDs refer...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011166528