This study empirically tests the "Culture of Spending" hypothesis (Payne, 199la). According to this hypothesis, the longer congressmen stay in office, the more likely they are to support federal spending. Spending behavior in this study is measured by the National Taxpayers Union (NTU)...

This paper develops a methodology for calculating the expected completed lengths of U.S. congressmen's stays in office. In addition, it demonstrates how this methodology can be used to forecast the seniority structure of future Congresses. One of the major empirical findings of this paper is...