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Learning about fiscal multipliers during the European sovereign debt crisis : evidence from a quasi-natural experiment

Gόrnicka, Lucyna; Kamps, Christophe; Koester, Gerrit; … - 2018

Identifying fiscal multipliers is usually constrained by the absence of a counterfactual scenario. Our new data set allows overcoming this problem by making use of the fact that recommendations under the EU's excessive deficit procedure (EDP) provide both a baseline no-policy-change scenario and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011856496

The implications of global and domestic credit cycles for emerging market economies : measures of finance-adjusted output gaps

Grintzalis, Ioannis; Lodge, David; Manu, Ana-Simona - 2017

We present estimates of finance-adjusted output gaps which incorporate the information on the domestic and global credit cycles for a sample of emerging market economies (EMEs). Following recent BIS research, we use a state-space representation of an HP filter augmented with a measure of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011637326

Business cycles in the euro area

Giannone, Domenico; Lenza, Michele; Reichlin, Lucrezia - 2009

This paper shows that the EMU has not affected historical characteristics of member countries' business cycles and their cross-correlations. Member countries which had similar levels of GDP per-capita in the seventies have also experienced similar business cycles since then and no significant...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003831782

Output growth and fluctuation : the role of financial openness

Popov, Alexander - 2011

I analyze output growth, volatility, and skewness as the joint outcomes of financial openness. Using an industry panel of 53 countries over 45 years, I find that financial openness increases simultaneously mean growth and the negative skewness of the growth process. The increase in output...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009354652

US monetary policy is more powerful in low economic growth regimes

De Santis, Roberto A.; Tornese, Tommaso - 2024

We use nonlinear empirical methods to uncover non-linearities in the propagation of monetary policy shocks. We find that the transmission on output, goods prices and asset prices is stronger in a low growth regime, contrary to the findings of Tenreyro and Thwaites (2016). The impact is stronger...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014507165

Switching-track after the Great Recession

Vinci, Francesca; Licandro, Omar - 2021

behaviour of the U.S. economy before and after the Great Recession. In a DSGE model with endogenous growth, negative demand …, when shocks are deep and persistent enough, like during the Great Recession, they call for a downward revision of potential … followed the Great Recession, as well as the V-shaped recoveries that followed the oil shock recessions. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012627907

Detecting turning points in global economic activity

Baumann, Ursel; Gómez Salvador, Ramón; Seitz, Franz - 2019

We present non-linear models to capture the turning points in global economic activity as well as in advanced and emerging economies from 1980 to 2017. We first estimate Markov Switching models within a univariate framework. These models support the relevance of three business cycle regimes...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012059037

Price rigidities and the granular origins of aggregate fluctuations

Pasten, Ernesto; Schoenle, Raphael; Weber, Michael - 2017

We study the aggregate implications of sectoral shocks in a multi-sector New Keynesian model featuring sectoral heterogeneity in price stickiness, sector size, and input-output linkages. We calibrate a 341 sector version of the model to the United States. Both theoretically and empirically,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011732756

Unobserved components model(s) : output gaps and financial cycles

Guillochon, Justine; Le Roux, Julien - 2023

The Global Financial Crisis established that policymakers should consider the stage of the financial cycle to better evaluate the cyclical position of the economy when designing monetary policy decisions. If financial variables are omitted from the estimations of the output gap, a common and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014343145

Energy supply shocks' nonlinearities on output and prices

De Santis, Roberto A.; Tornese, Tommaso - 2023

We use a Bayesian Threshold Vector Autoregression model identified through sign and narrative restrictions to uncover non-linearities in the propagation of energy supply shocks. We find that the transmission of energy supply shocks on consumer prices is stronger in high-inflation regimes,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014343158