Dans cet article, nous testons la presence de contagion durant la crise financiere asiatique. A cet effet, nous proposons une nouvelle procedure qui consiste a tester la non-linearite des mecanismes de propagation des chocs estimes a travers un modele d’interdependance de long terme. Nous...

This paper develops an Early Warning System (EWS) based on third-generation mechanism of financial crises using the Markov switching model and a new twin-crisis index. We apply the EWS to Turkey using monthly data ranging between February 1992 and December 2007.We show that the mode captures the...