This paper proposes an empirical model for the modified pecking order theory (MPO) in which both trade-off (TO) and pecking order (PO) models are nested. The MPO model is specified as an error-correction mechanism and applied to a vast panel data-set. Unlike previously estimated financial...

The creation of the Euro area has increased the importance of obtaining timely information about short-term changes in the area's real activity. In this paper we propose a number of alternative short term forecasting models, ranging from simple ARIMA models to more complex cointegrated VAR and...