To protect the security of energy supply, China is building national strategic petroleum reserve (SPR). We present a dynamic programming model to determine the optimal stockpiling and drawdown strategies for China's SPR under various scenarios, focusing on minimizing the total cost of reserves....

Based on time series of crude oil prices (daily spot), this paper analyses price fluctuation with two significant parameters [tau] (speculators' time scales of investment) and [epsilon] (speculators' expectations of return) by using Zipf analysis technique, specifically, by mapping [tau]-returns...

Estimation has been carried out using GARCH-type models, based on the Generalized Error Distribution (GED), for both the extreme downside and upside Value-at-Risks (VaR) of returns in the WTI and Brent crude oil spot markets. Furthermore, according to a new concept of Granger causality in risk,...

This paper applies pattern matching technique to multi-step prediction of crude oil prices and proposes a new approach: generalized pattern matching based on genetic algorithm (GPMGA), which can be used to forecast future crude oil price based on historical observations. This approach can detect...

Hydropower plays a major role in the Canadian electricity generation industry. Few attempts have been made, however, to assess the efficiency of hydropower generation in Canada. This paper analyzes the overall efficiency of hydropower generation in Canada from comprehensive viewpoints of...

In the 11th Five-Year Plan (FYP) (2005–2010), the Chinese Government initiated a series of energy-saving and emission reduction policies in many key fields in response to environmental pollution and climate change. This paper quantitatively evaluates the performance of energy conservation and...

The import risks confronting oil consumers are influenced by transport conditions, oil prices, geopolitics, etc. This paper constructs an evaluation framework for oil import security from a perspective of supply chain process, and builds a two-phase DEA-like model to evaluate oil import...

This paper characterizes weekly international oil price fundamentals since 2000 by analyzing the transformation of the market mechanism based on structural change perspective. Using endogenously-determined break tests that allow for changes in both level and trend, we divide the price...

This paper applies real options theory to overseas oil investment by adding an investment-environment factor to oil-resource valuation. A real options model is developed to illustrate how an investor country (or oil company) can evaluate and compare the critical value of oil-resource investment...

China's rapid economic development caused a sharp increase in crude oil demand. In 2011, China imported 254million tons of crude oil in total, with its dependence on imported oil reaching 56.5%. This paper carries out a quantitative study on the risk of China's crude oil imports by establishing...