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This paper examines the information content of risk-neutral moments to explain crude oil futures returns. Implied volatility and higher moments are extracted from observed crude oil option prices using a model-free implied volatility framework and the Black-Scholes model. We find a tenuous and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012937485
Stochastic process models of commodity prices are important inputs in energy investment evaluation and planning problems. In this paper, we focus on modeling and forecasting the long-term price level, since it is the dominant factor in many such applications. To provide a foundation for our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011100087