This paper analyzes the core factors and the impact path of aviation fuel demand in China and conducts a structural decomposition analysis of the aviation fuel cost changes and increase of the main aviation enterprises’ business profits. Through the establishment of an integrated forecast...

This paper proposes time-varying Granger causality tests based on the tests developed by Hong (2001) and two dynamic correlation estimators (i.e., rolling correlation and dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH), here called the rolling Hong and DCC-MGARCH Hong tests, respectively....

The importance of understanding the underlying characteristics of international crude oil price movements attracts much attention from academic researchers and business practitioners. Due to the intrinsic complexity of the oil market, however, most of them fail to produce consistently good...