Abstract A fundamental probabilistic equivalence between randomized experiments and observational studies is presented. Given a detailed scenario, the reader is asked to consider which of two possible study designs provides more information regarding the expected difference in an outcome due to...

Abstract We develop a transport formula for predicting overall cumulative vaccine efficacy through time t ( $$VE(t)$$ ) to prevent clinically significant infection with a genetically diverse pathogen (e. g., HIV infection) in a new setting for which a Phase III preventive vaccine efficacy...