We analyze the US public sector balance sheet and project it forward under the assumption that current policies remain in place. We first document the history of the balance sheet and its components since World War II, with a detailed account of its evolution during and after the global...

This paper identifies leading indicators of fiscal crises based on a large sample of countries at different stages of development over 1970-2015. Our results are robust to different methodologies and sample periods. Previous literature on early warning sistems (EWS) for fiscal crises is scarce...

This paper develops a simple framework to examine the budgetary implications of monetary policy measures. It further outlines, using this framework, the various channels of influence that tight monetary policy may have on the budget deficit. The cumulative effect might be quantitatively large...

This paper develops indices of fiscal transparency for a broad range of countries based on the IMF''s Code of Good Practices on Fiscal Transparency, using data derived from published fiscal transparency modules of the Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSCs). The indices covers...