The purpose of this note is to highlight the recent availability of an expanded set of historical data of the staff's estimates of the real-time output gap at the Real-Time Data Research Center of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

The one-sided credit-to-GDP gap -- measured as the difference between the level of private nonfinancial sector credit-to-GDP and its one-sided Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filtered trend (with λ=400,000) -- is a prominent variable in the decision-making framework proposed by the BCBS for the Basel III...

Unfavorable macroeconomic and financial scenarios are a core element of bank stress tests, and the degree to which variables deteriorate in a scenario--i.e., the scenario’s severity--is a central design feature of any stress test exercise

Consumer price inflation in the United States, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, jumped to just above 7 percent in the twelve months ending in December 2021. Inflation in 2021 reached the highest level seen since the early 1980s. The jump in inflation outside of the range experienced over...

Inflation in the United States has been running at low levels. Over the five years ending in December 2014, the percent change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), at 8.8 percent (or 1.7 percent at an annual rate), was the lowest rate of price increase seen in the United States in half a century