To what extent does the persistent relatively low level of the federal funds rate reflect a decline in its long-run equilibrium? In this Note, we examine how views have evolved on that question among professional forecasters, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants, and investors in...

We highlight four main results from our analysis. First, we find that quoted spreads did not merely rise to much higher than usual levels on average, but were also oscillating over a wider range; while at some points within the day spreads were substantially wider than on a typical day, at other...

Long-term U.S. interest rates have fallen substantially over the last two decades. The 5-to-10-year nominal forward interest rate implied by the prices of U.S. Treasury securities is now about 7 percentage points lower than it was at the start of the 1990s

The Treasury market flash event of February 25, 2021 underscores the pivotal role of high-speed liquidity provision in the most liquid electronic parts of the Treasury market. We find evidence that the sharp drop in prices that day was accompanied by a sudden drop in market depth and a brief...