To what extent does the persistent relatively low level of the federal funds rate reflect a decline in its long-run equilibrium? In this Note, we examine how views have evolved on that question among professional forecasters, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants, and investors in...

Early this year, economic activity plummeted as COVID-19 cases around the world surged and governments enacted restrictions to mitigate the spread of the virus. Over the summer, as restrictions were gradually lifted, the near-term outlook for the economy improved and economic data prints began...