Showing 1 - 10 of 169
This paper discusses various concepts of unemployment rate benchmarks that are frequently used by policymakers for assessing the current state of the economy as it relates to the pursuit of both price stability and maximum employment. In particular, we propose two broad categories of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012389411
before falling into a recession, and the paper designs Markov-switching models that behave in that way. While the switching … models using output growth alone produce a considerable number of false positive recession signals, adding the slope of the … positives and improves recession forecasting. The switching model is particularly good at forecasting at long horizons …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014182079
What is the output gap? There are many definitions in the economics literature, all of which have a long history. I discuss three alternatives: the deviation of output from its long-run stochastic trend (i.e., the "Beveridge-Nelson cycle"); the deviation of output from the level consistent with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014184879
This paper provides new evidence for cyclicality in the job-search effort of employed workers, on-the-job search (OJS) intensity, in the United States using American Time Use Survey and various cyclical indicators. We find that OJS intensity is countercyclical along both the extensive and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014122284
Despite the recent patch of sluggish growth, the U.S. economy has experienced a period of remarkable stability since the mid-1980s. One popular explanation attributes the diminished variability of economic activity to information-technology-led improvements in inventory management. Our results,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014076151
Using U.S. data from 1929 to 2015, we show that elevated credit-market sentiment in year t-2 is associated with a decline in economic activity in years t and t+1. Underlying this result is the existence of predictable mean reversion in credit-market conditions. When credit risk is aggressively...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012965855
The U.S. economy entered the 1920s with a robust job market and high inflation but fell into a recession following the … became loose following the tightening as the recession deepened. The demand-supply imbalance in the labor market was driven … by a sharp decline in the number of job openings. We also show that the recession had an uneven effect on labor markets …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014030258
We construct new estimates of potential output and the output gap using a multivariate approach that allows for an explicit role for measurement errors in the decomposition of real output. Because we include data on hours, output, employment, and the labor force, we are able to decompose our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013118624
This paper presents a framework to interpret movements in the Beveridge curve and analyze unemployment fluctuations. We decompose the unemployment rate into three main components: (1) a component driven by changes in labor demand – movements along the Beveridge curve and shifts in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013122077
This paper studies the behavior of producers of capital goods, examining how they set shipments in response to fluctuations in new orders. The paper establishes a stylized fact: the response of shipments to orders is more pronounced when the level of new orders is low relative to the level of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013106762