before falling into a recession, and the paper designs Markov-switching models that behave in that way. While the switching … models using output growth alone produce a considerable number of false positive recession signals, adding the slope of the … positives and improves recession forecasting. The switching model is particularly good at forecasting at long horizons …

The U.S. economy entered the 1920s with a robust job market and high inflation but fell into a recession following the … became loose following the tightening as the recession deepened. The demand-supply imbalance in the labor market was driven … by a sharp decline in the number of job openings. We also show that the recession had an uneven effect on labor markets …