models relative to alternatives-including official forecasts has been documented. When evaluating DSGE models on an absolute … basis, however, we find that the benchmark estimated medium scale DSGE model forecasts inflation and GDP growth very poorly …, although statistical and judgmental forecasts forecast as poorly. Our finding is the DSGE model analogue of the literature …

. A forecast experiment finds that it is difficult to exploit informational inefficiencies to improve inflation forecasts …

participants’ qualitative assessments of the uncertainty attending their individual forecasts of real activity and inflation …

(DSGE) model forecasts and their ability to predict comovements among key macroeconomic variables. We construct posterior … predictive checks to evaluate conditional and unconditional density forecasts, in addition to checks for root-mean-squared errors … and event probabilities associated with these forecasts. The checks are implemented on a three-equation DSGE model as well …