(DSGE) model forecasts and their ability to predict comovements among key macroeconomic variables. We construct posterior … predictive checks to evaluate conditional and unconditional density forecasts, in addition to checks for root-mean-squared errors … and event probabilities associated with these forecasts. The checks are implemented on a three-equation DSGE model as well …

predicts revisions in economic forecasts and FOMC decisions. Twitter sentiment is also useful, but slightly less so than news …

-time data and survey forecasts for the United States over the past 40 years, we show that a recursively estimated VAR on real … forecasts than a benchmark fixed-coefficient counterpart. We then estimate a simple term structure model under the assumption …

models relative to alternatives-including official forecasts has been documented. When evaluating DSGE models on an absolute … basis, however, we find that the benchmark estimated medium scale DSGE model forecasts inflation and GDP growth very poorly …, although statistical and judgmental forecasts forecast as poorly. Our finding is the DSGE model analogue of the literature …

Reserve Board forecasts published in the Greenbook. The resulting measure of Greenbook text sentiment, “Tonality,â€� is … unemployment, relative to the Greenbook point forecasts. We then test whether Tonality helps predict monetary policy and stock …