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Modeling the consumption response to the CARES Act

Carroll, Chris; Crawley, Edmund; Slacalek, Jirka; … - 2020

To predict the effects of the 2020 U.S. CARES act on consumption, we extend a model that matches responses of households to past consumption stimulus packages. The extension allows us to account for two novel features of the coronavirus crisis. First, during the lockdown, many types of spending...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012389446

Supply-Side Effects of Pandemic Mortality : Insights from an Overlapping-Generations Model

Gagnon, Etienne; Johannsen, Benjamin K.; López-Salido, … - 2020

We use an overlapping generation model to explore the implications of mortality during pandemics for the economy's productive capacity. Under current epidemiological projections for the progression of COVID-19, our model suggests that mortality will have, in itself, at most small effects on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014048776

Cost of Borrowing Shocks and Fiscal Adjustment

De Groot, Oliver - 2013

Do capital markets impose fiscal discipline on governments? We investigate the responses of fiscal variables to a change in the interest rate paid by governments on their debt in a panel of 14 European countries over four decades. To this end, we estimate a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013073600

The Household Expenditure Response to a Consumption Tax Rate Increase

Cashin, David B. - 2017

This study measures the effect of an increase in Japan's Value Added Tax rate on the timing of household expenditures and consumption, which do not necessarily coincide. The analysis finds that durable and storable expenditures surged in the month prior to the tax rate increase, fell sharply...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014121977

Welfare and Spending Effects of Consumption Stimulus Policies

Carroll, Chris; Crawley, Edmund; Tretvoll, Hakon - 2023

any desired size. A temporary (two-year) cut in the rate of wage taxation is considerably less effective than the other …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014355013

Households' balance sheets and the effect of fiscal policy

Andrés, Javier; Boscá, José E.; Ferri, Javier; … - 2017

Using the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, we identify six household types as a function of their balance sheet composition. Since 1999, there has been a decline in the share of patient households and an increase in the share of impatient households with negative wealth. Using a DSGE model with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011927002

Consumer Spending and Fiscal Consolidation : Evidence from a Housing Tax Experiment

Surico, Paolo - 2016

A major change of the property tax system in 2011 generated significant variation in the amount of housing taxes paid by Italian households. Using new questions added to the Survey on Household Income and Wealth (SHIW), we exploit this variation to provide an unprecedented analysis of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013000811

The Hidden Heterogeneity of Inflation Expectations and its Implications

Drager, Lena; Lamla, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan - 2020

Using a new consumer survey dataset, we document a new dimension of heterogeneity in inflation expectations that has … same inflation expectations differently assess whether the level of expected inflation and of nominal interest rates is … appropriate or too high/too low. The `hidden heterogeneity' in expectations stemming from these opinions is related to demographic …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014048820

Belief Dispersion Among Household Investors and Stock Trading Volume

Li, Geng - 2011

We study the effects of belief dispersion on stock trading volume. Unlike most of the existing work on the subject, our paper focuses on how household investors' disagreements on macroeconomic variables influence market-wide trading volume. We show that greater belief dispersion among household...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013118656

Effects of Monetary Policy on Household Expectations : The Role of Homeownership

Ahn, Hie Joo; Yang, Choongryul - 2023

We study the role of homeownership in the effectiveness of monetary policy on households' expectations. Empirically, we … find that homeowners revise down their near-term inflation expectations and their optimism about future labor market … suggests that homeowners are attentive to news on interest rates and adjust their expectations accordingly in a manner …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014355012