This paper develops new estimates of flows into and out of unemployment that allow for unobserved heterogeneity across … workers as well as direct effects of unemployment duration on unemployment-exit probabilities. Unlike any previous paper in … shocks to the short-run, medium-run, and long-run variance of unemployment as well as to specific historical episodes. We …

disaggregate unemployment and in the cross-sectional differences across individuals of the duration of unemployment spells. The …-space model of Ahn and Hamilton (2016). I found that the contribution of each factor to the dynamics of disaggregate unemployment …

In the spring of 2020, many observers relied heavily on weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits (UI … employment report. Analyzing the relationship between UI claims and underlying employment, we argue that insured unemployment … associated claims, we show that insured unemployment comoved strongly with payroll employment throughout the first months of the …

small businesses in the United States are one of the drivers explaining the unemployment dynamics during the Great Recession …

attributable to larger Covid-era stimulus payments and unemployment insurance …

This paper discusses various concepts of unemployment rate benchmarks that are frequently used by policymakers for … particular, we propose two broad categories of unemployment rate benchmarks: (1) a longer-run unemployment rate expected to … prevail after adjusting to business cycle shocks and (2) a stable-price unemployment rate tied to inflationary pressures. We …

In this paper household level data are used to explore whether unemployment risk is an important factor in the timing … cycle. The model predicts that consumers respond to increases in unemployment risk by postponing purchases of the durable …. Consistent with the model, there is evidence that unemployment risk has a direct effect on the timing of home purchases …

Why do more educated workers experience lower unemployment rates and lower employment volatility? A closer look at the …-specific human capital reduce the outside option of workers, implying less incentives to separate. The model generates unemployment …