We use several US and euro-area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation … featuring time-varying uncertainty. We obtain survey-consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the US … and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we propose a novel measure of the anchoring of inflation expectations that …

shortfalls in inflation and output relative to exogenous trends, and the policy rate is kept at the ELB until the joint shortfall … is made up. Bernanke's second proposal adds only the cumulative inflation shortfall since the beginning of an ELB episode … directly to an otherwise standard Taylor rule. This cumulative shortfall in inflation from the 2 percent objective can be …

A central tenet of inflation targeting is that establishing and maintaining well-anchored inflation expectations are … essential. In this paper, we reexamine the role of key elements of the inflation targeting framework towards this end, in the … that incorporates three key characteristics of inflation targeting: transparency, commitment to maintaining price stability …

adequate stimulus at the ELB while avoiding sizable overshoots of inflation and output …

Speed limit policy, a monetary policy strategy that focuses on stabilizing inflation and the change in the output gap …, consistently delivers better welfare outcomes than flexible inflation targeting or flexible price level targeting in empirical New … inflation targeting strategy, the discretionary speed limit policy performs better for most empirically plausible model …

Recently, the experience of the 1960s—when the U.S. inflation rate rose rapidly and persistently over a comparatively … short period—has been invoked as a cautionary tale for the present. An analysis of this period indicates that the inflation …

curves display similar patterns of instability and to examine lead-lag patterns in how individual inflation series change. We …