We use several US and euro-area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation … featuring time-varying uncertainty. We obtain survey-consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the US … and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we propose a novel measure of the anchoring of inflation expectations that …

inflation and deflationary biases in inflation expectations. In a model with an occasionally binding zero-lower-bound constraint …, we show that an inflation bias as well as a deflationary bias exist as a steady-state outcome. We assess the predictions … of this model using unique individual-level inflation expectations data across nine countries that allow for a direct …

patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the 'normal regime', oil price … shocks are followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity moving in the … same direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a …

This paper estimates the path of inflation persistence in the United States over the last 50 years and draws … predict persistent inflation outcomes. Time variation of the central bank's preference for output stability should be … reflected in changes in inflation persistence. We estimate an ARMA(1,q) model with a time-varying autoregressive parameter for …

A central tenet of inflation targeting is that establishing and maintaining well-anchored inflation expectations are … essential. In this paper, we reexamine the role of key elements of the inflation targeting framework towards this end, in the … that incorporates three key characteristics of inflation targeting: transparency, commitment to maintaining price stability …

shortfalls in inflation and output relative to exogenous trends, and the policy rate is kept at the ELB until the joint shortfall … is made up. Bernanke's second proposal adds only the cumulative inflation shortfall since the beginning of an ELB episode … directly to an otherwise standard Taylor rule. This cumulative shortfall in inflation from the 2 percent objective can be …

adequate stimulus at the ELB while avoiding sizable overshoots of inflation and output …