For Portugal, the transition to the Euro began in September 1989 and featured three successive institutional arrangements related to the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the European Monetary System: shadowing it, belonging to it with 6% and then with 15% fluctuation bands. Using daily data, we study...

This paper explores the credibility of exchange rate arrangements for the five African Portuguese-speaking (PALOP) countries. Our working hypothesis is that credibility necessarily implies low mean exchange market pressure (EMP), low EMP conditional volatility and low-severity EMP crises. In...

Antonio Manuel Pinto Barbosa (1917-2006), economist and official, was included by Expresso Revista among the 100 Portuguese who shaped the 20th century. He has been biographed by Joao Cesar das Neves and Francisco Azevedo e Silva in a book published in 1999, whose chapter 7 calls him the dean of...

Three texts were prepared for delivery at the first honorary doctorate awarded simultaneously by three Lisbon universities on 27 February, 2012: an introduction, a lecture and a comment. The event included the award of member of the Lisbon Academy of Science (ACL) by Manuel Jacinto Nunes, dean...

The paper addresses the complex interaction between globalization, democracy and development, measured respectively by the KOF (Swiss Economic Institute) index, the Freedom House index and GDP per capita relative to the US. The approach follows from previous simultaneous estimates of the three...

Antonio Manuel Pinto Barbosa (1917-2006), economist and official, was included by Expresso Revista among the 100 Portuguese who shaped the 20th century. He has been biographed by Joao Cesar das Neves and Francisco Azevedo e Silva in a book published in 1999, whose chapter 7 calls him the dean of...

We assess the determinants of Chinese direct investment in Africa compared with those of global FDI. We find that economic size and macroeconomic stability are positively correlated with Chinese and global FDI in Africa. Institutional variables, such as accountability and rule of law, are not...

A mudança de regime para a estabilidade e convertibilidade cambiais deve ser enquadrada numa mudança de regime económico e financeiro. A parte monetária foi feita por pressão europeia directa mas não se pode mudar a constituição fiscal a partir de fora. Para tal, não bastam tratados nem...

In this study, we assess the credibility of the currency board arrangement (CBA) of the Macau Special Administrative Region by studying the relationship between exchange market pressure (EMP) and the anchors of a rule-based CBA, namely, interest rate arbitrage, exchange rate arbitrage and...

This paper discusses the design of structural policies by relating second-best results and the complementarity of reforms. It computes a complementarity index based on structural reform indicators compiled by the EBRD for transition countries, assuming that the run-up to EU integration...