In this paper we propose a smooth transition tree model for both the conditionalmean and variance of the short-term interest rate process. The estimation of suchmodels is addressed and the asymptotic properties of the quasi-maximum likelihoodestimator are derived. Model specification is also...

We propose an empirical approach to determine the various economic sourcesdriving the US yield curve. We allow the conditional dynamics of the yield at differ-ent maturities to change in reaction to past information coming from several relevantpredictor variables. We consider both endogenous,...

The persistence of financial instability calls into question the adequacy of the current regulatory regime. Acritical review of the three pillars at the core of current financial regulation exposes some structural flaws.[...]

We propose a simple but effective estimation procedure to extract the level and the volatilitydynamics of a latent macroeconomic factor from a panel of observable indicators. Our approachis based on a multivariate conditionally heteroskedastic exact factor model that cantake into account the...

We want to assess the relationship between the equity and the debt cost of capital. Using a verysimple dividend discount model we compute the implied discount rate and we compare it with thecorresponding premium on the corporate credit default swap using a cointegration approach. Wedemonstrated...

We provide a new method to derive the state price density per unit probabilitybased on option prices and GARCH model. We derive the risk neutraldistribution using the result in Breeden and Litzenberger (1978) and thehistorical density adapting the GARCH model of Barone-Adesi, Engle, andMancini...

We study the influence of systematic probability misestimation on complexfinancial investment decisions on the context of structured financialproducts. Structured products have in recent years become more and morecomplex. We study the question whether this complexity might be a...

Evolutionary nance studies the dynamic interaction of investment strategies in nancialmarkets. This market interaction generates a stochastic wealth dynamics on aheterogenous population of traders through the uctuation of asset prices and theirrandom payos. Asset prices are endogenously...