This paper develops a model of the term structures of nominal and real interest rates driven by state variables representing the short-term real interest rate, expected inflation, inflation's central tendency, and four volatility factors that follow GARCH processes. We derive analytical...

This paper presents an equilibrium bond pricing model driven by two stochastic factors: the real interest rate and the expected rate of inflation. The model's parameters are estimated using a maximum likelihood technique based on a Kalman filter. Data on nominal U.S. Treasury securities and...

The market prices of stocks and other assets tend to cluster on round fractions. A similar clustering is found in the interest rates paid on retail bank deposits. However, the theoretical rationales given for asset-price clustering are incompatible with the clustering of retail deposit rates....

“Too-big-to-fail” is consistent with policies followed by private bank clearing houses during financial crises in the U.S. National Banking Era prior to the existence of the Federal Reserve System. Private bank clearing houses provided emergency lending to member banks during financial...

How did pre-Fed banking crises end? How did depositors' beliefs change? During the National Banking Era, 1863-1914, banks responded to the severe panics by suspending convertibility; that is, they refused to exchange cash for their liabilities (checking accounts). At the start of the suspension...