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Crump, Richard K. - 2020

We estimate the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS)—the response of expected consumption growth to changes …). This unique data set allows us to estimate the consumption Euler equation with no auxiliary assumptions on the properties … with the results of much of the literature. In addition, planned consumption displays excess sensitivity to expected income …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012856136

Fundamental Disagreement about Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Cao, Shuo - 2020

Using a unique data set of individual professional forecasts, we document disagreement about the future path of monetary policy, particularly at longer horizons. The stark differences in short rate forecasts imply strong disagreement about the risk-return trade-off of longer-term bonds....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012828049

Tying Down the Anchor : Monetary Policy Rules and the Lower Bound on Interest Rates

Mertens, Thomas M. - 2019

This paper uses a standard New Keynesian model to analyze the effects and implementation of various monetary policy frameworks in the presence of a low natural rate of interest and a lower bound on interest rates. Under a standard inflation-targeting approach, inflation expectations will be...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012871223

Monetary Policy Frameworks and the Effective Lower Bound on Interest Rates

Mertens, Thomas M. - 2019

This paper applies a standard New Keynesian model to analyze the effects of monetary policy in the presence of a low natural rate of interest and a lower bound on interest rates. Under a standard inflation-targeting approach, inflation expectations will be anchored at a level below the inflation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012867264

What to Expect From the Lower Bound on Interest Rates : Evidence from Derivatives Prices

Mertens, Thomas M. - 2020

This paper analyzes the effects of the lower bound for interest rates on the distributions of inflation and interest rates. We study a stylized New Keynesian model where the policy instrument is subject to a lower bound to motivate the empirical analysis. Two equilibria emerge: In the “target...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012851471