This paper estimates city-level employment cycles for 58 large U.S. cities and documents the substantial cross-city variation in the timing, lengths, and frequencies of their employment contractions. It also shows how the spread of city-level contractions associated with U.S. recessions has...

We measure the relative contribution of the deviation of real activity from its equilibrium (the gap), quot;supply shockquot; variables, and long-horizon inflation expectations for explaining the U.S. inflation rate in the post-war period. For alternative specifications for the inflation driving...

This paper examines the determinants of employment growth in metro areas. To obtain growth rates, we use a Markov-switching model that separates a city's growth path into two distinct phases (high and low), each with its own growth rate. The simple average growth rate over some period is,...