This paper re-examines the validity of the Expectation Hypothesis (EH) of the term structure of US repo rates ranging in maturity from overnight to three months. We extend the work of Longstaff (2000) in two directions: (i) we implement statistical tests designed to increase test power in this...

In February 2005 Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan noticed that the 10-year Treasury yields failed to increase despite a 150-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate as a “conundrum.” This paper shows that the connection between the 10-year yield and the federal funds rate was...

Since the late 1980s the Fed has implemented monetary policy by adjusting its target for the overnight federal funds rate. Money's role in monetary policy has been tertiary, at best. Indeed, several influential economists have suggested that money is irrelevant for monetary policy. They suggest...

On May 29, 2008, the Wall Street Journal reported that several large international banks were reporting unjustifiably low LIBOR rates. Since then two large banks, Barclays and UBS, have paid significant fines for manipulating their LIBOR rates, and additional banks are expected to be fined. This...

This paper investigates the effectiveness of forward guidance for the central banks of four countries: New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and the United States. We test whether forward guidance improved market participants' ability to forecast future short-term and long-term rates. We find that...

The Fed's ability to control the federal funds rate stems from its ability to alter the supply of liquidity in the overnight market through open market operations. This paper uses daily data compiled by the author from the records of the Trading Desk of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York over...

Motivated, on the one hand, by the belief that the Fed controls the short-term rate through open market operations, and on the other, by quot;the lack of convincing proof that this is what happens,quot; Hamilton (1997) suggested that more convincing evidence of the liquidity effect could be...

This paper develops an analytically tractable Bewley model of money featuring capital and financial intermediation. It is shown that when money is a vital form of liquidity to meet uncertain consumption needs, the welfare costs of inflation can be extremely large. With low utility and parameter...

Financial capital and fixed capital tend to flow in opposite directions between poor and rich countries. Why? What are the implications of such two-way capital flows for global trade imbalances and welfare in the long run? This paper introduces frictions into a standard two-country neoclassical...

This paper shows that uninsured risk and borrowing constraints can make an individual's marginal propensity to consume negatively dependent on his/her permanent income. Therefore, higher income growth can lead to higher saving rates without requiring (or causing) high interest rates – in sharp...