The failures of several U.S. regional banks have stimulated discussions about the macroeconomic effects of a likely credit contraction triggered by the recent banking turmoil. Drawing on historical evidence from advanced economies, this study documents a sizable and persistent decline in output...

Using sectoral data at a medium level of aggregation, we find that price changes became less responsive to aggregate unemployment around 2009–2010. The slopes of the disaggregated Phillips curves diminished in many sectors, including housing and some services. We also document a decrease in...

Using highly disaggregated personal consumption expenditures data, I analyze whether the recent inflation run-up is explained by supply shocks more than by demand shocks, and whether these demand and supply shocks are likely persistent or transitory. I develop a new decomposition method that...