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Utilizing the Consumer Expenditure Survey and state-level variation in taxes, this study finds that prices for most … models of new cars shift by more than the amount of a sales tax. The evidence of an overshifting of prices offers support for …-tax interest rate have offsetting effects on new car prices; a one percentage point increase in the after-tax real interest rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005393653
This paper employs stochastic simulations of a small structural rational expectations model to investigate the consequences of the zero bound constraint on nominal interest rates. We find that if the economy is subject to stochastic shocks similar in magnitude to those experienced in the U.S....
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This paper uses the historical narrative record to determine whether inflation expectations shifted during the second quarter of 1933, precisely as the recovery from the Great Depression took hold. First, by examining the historical news record and the forecasts of contemporary business...
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We derive a definition of linear cointegration for nonlinear stochastic processes using a martingale representation theorem. The result shows that stationary linear cointegrations can exhibit nonlinear dynamics, in contrast with the normal assumption of linearity. We propose a sequential...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005513026
From 2004 to 2006, the FOMC raised the target federal funds rate by 4.25 percentage points, yet long-maturity yields and forward rates fell. We consider several possible explanations for this "conundrum." The most likely, in our view, is a fall in the term premium, probably associated with some...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005513067
This paper reviews a simple three-factor arbitrage-free term structure model estimated by Federal Reserve Board staff and reports results obtained from fitting this model to U.S. Treasury yields since 1990. The model ascribes a large portion of the decline in long-term yields and distant-horizon...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005513092