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This paper relates Keynes's discussions of money, the state theory of money, financial markets, investors' expectations, uncertainty, and liquidity preference to the dynamics of government bond yields for countries with monetary sovereignty. Keynes argued that the central bank can influence the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012317613
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consistent with the established 2 percent longer-run goal for the annual Personal Consumption Expenditures index and the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011546686
Even when the policy rate is currently not constrained by its effective lower bound (ELB), the possibility that the policy rate will become constrained in the future lowers today's inflation by creating tail risk in future inflation and thus reducing expected inflation. In an empirically rich...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011499709
from a sharp rise in investors’ liquidity preference and the fear of capital losses due to uncertainty about the direction … of vigorous fiscal policy and employment creation to induce a higher expected marginal efficiency of capital, while the … central bank stabilizes the yield curve and reduces interest rate volatility to mitigate investors’ expectations of capital …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011453035
US government indebtedness and fiscal deficits increased notably following the global financial crisis. Yet long-term interest rates and US Treasury yields have remained remarkably low. Why have long-term interest rates stayed low despite the elevated government indebtedness? What are the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011453037
We study the relationship between monetary policy and long-term rates in a structural, general equilibrium model estimated on both macro and yields data from the United States. Regime shifts in the conditional variance of productivity shocks, or "uncertainty shocks", are an important model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012018454
This paper traces the history of China's reform of its monetary policy framework and analyzes its success and problems. In the context of financial marketization and the failure of the quantity-targeting framework, the People's Bank of China transformed its monetary policy framework toward one...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011999063
This paper analyzes the dynamics of long-term US Treasury security yields from a Keynesian perspective using daily data. Keynes held that the short-term interest rate is the main driver of the long-term interest rate. In this paper, the daily changes in long-term Treasury security yields are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012059722