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The Impacts of Renminbi Appreciation on Trades Flows and Reserve Accumulation in a Monetary Trade Model
Whalley, John - 2010
Given the rapidly growing reserves in Asia (China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan) and the pressures from trading partners to …, and that changes in trade flows can be substantial. Different treatments of China's processing trade have small impact on … changes in China's trade flow under RMB appreciation, but significant impacts on the change in the surplus. Results are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012759718
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Productivity, External Balance and Exchange Rates : Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism Among G7 Countries
Corsetti, Giancarlo - 2010
This paper investigates the international transmission of productivity shocks in a sample of five G7 countries. For each country, using long-run restrictions, we identify shocks that increase permanently domestic labor productivity in manufacturing (our measure of tradables) relative to an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012760681
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The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting
Rogoff, Kenneth - 2008
Are structural models getting closer to being able to forecast exchange rates at short horizons? Here we argue that misinterpretation of some new out-of-sample tests for nested models, over-reliance on asymptotic test statistics, and failure to sufficiently check robustness to alternative time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012771554
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Explaining the Effects of Government Spending Shocks on Consumption and the Real Exchange Rate
Ravn, Morten O. - 2007
Using panel structural VAR analysis and quarterly data from four industrialized countries, we document that an increase in government purchases leads to an expansion in output and private consumption, a deterioration in the trade balance, and a depreciation of the real exchange rate (i.e., a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012776197
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The Dollar and the Trade Deficit in the 1980s : A Personal View
Feldstein, Martin S. - 2021
The sharp gyrations of the dollar and of the trade deficit in the 1980s were among the most novel and least understood economic developments of the decade. This paper, which was written as part of the NBER project on American economic policy in the 1980s, examines the reasons for the dollar's...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013231211
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Interest Rates, Exchange Rates and International Adjustment
Dooley, Michael P.; Folkerts-Landau, David; Garber, Peter M. - 2021
In this paper we examine the behavior of interest rates and exchange rates following a variety of shocks to the international monetary system. Our analysis suggests that real interest rates in the US and Europe will remain low relative to historical experience for an extended period but converge...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013244773
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Resolving the Global Imbalance : The Dollar and the U.S. Saving Rate
Feldstein, Martin S. - 2010
The large trade and current account deficits of the United States cannot continue indefinitely because doing so would constitute a permanent gift to the U.S. economy. The process that will cause this gift to shrink and that will eventually cause it to reverse is a fall in the dollar. The dollar...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012759368
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The Dynamics of the U.S. Trade Balance and Real Exchange Rate : The J Curve and Trade Costs?
Alessandria, George A. - 2019
We study how changes in trade barriers contributed to the dynamics of the US trade balance and real exchange rate since 1980 - a period when trade tripled. Using two dynamic trade models, we decompose fluctuations in the trade balance into terms related to trade integration (global and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892565
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When Do Central Bank Interventions Influence Intra-Daily and Longer-Term Exchange Rate Movements?
Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. - 2012
This paper examines dollar interventions by the G3 governments since 1989, and the reasons that trader reactions to these interventions might differ over time and across central banks. Market microstructure theory provides a framework for understanding the process by which sterilized central...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012755830
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Net Worth, Exchange Rates, and Monetary Policy : The Effects of a Devaluation in a Financially Fragile Environment
Delli Gatti, Domenico - 2010
In this paper we propose an Open Economy Financial Accelerator model along the lines of Greenwald-Stiglitz (1993) close in spirit but different in many respects from the one proposed by Greenwald (1998.) The first goal of the paper is to provide a taxonomy of the effects of a devaluation in this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012759952