Kiley, Michael T. - 2018 - Version 3
.S. experience reveals an elevated risk of large increases in unemployment when inflation or credit growth is high and when the … unemployment rate is low. Inflation was a significant contributor to unemployment risk in the 1970s and early 1980s, and … fluctuations in credit have contributed importantly to unemployment risk since the 1980s. Fluctuations in upside risk to …
