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We study the effects of stock market volatility on risk-taking and financial crises by constructing a cross-country database spanning up to 211 years and 60 countries. Prolonged periods of low volatility have strong in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power over the incidence of banking...
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(1980), promised inflation and output gap---as opposed to lagged Lagrange multipliers---act as pseudo-state variables. Using … three well known variants of the model---one featuring inflation bias, one featuring stabilization bias, and one featuring a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012016641
In expectations-driven liquidity traps, a higher inflation target is associated with lower inflation and consumption … optimal inflation target. Using a calibrated New Keynesian model with an effective lower bound (ELB) constraint on nominal … optimal inflation target nontrivially. Our analysis provides a reason to be cautious about the argument that central banks …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012181161
We analyze credible forward guidance policies in a sticky-price model with an effective lower bound (ELB) constraint on nominal interest rates by solving a series of optimal sustainable policy problems indexed by the duration of reputational loss. Lower-for-longer policies --- while effective in...
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